Bezpieczny Bank nr 4 (77) 2019, s. 110-126
https://doi.org/DOI: 10.26354/bb.6.4.77.2019

Leszek Pawłowicz
dr hab. Leszek Pawłowicz –  prof. UG, Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management, University of Gdańsk; Gdansk Institute for Market Economics
ORCID 0000-0003-2580-6708
leszek.pawlowicz@gab.com.pl
Marta Penczar
dr Marta Penczar, Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management, University of Gdańsk; Gdansk Institute for Market Economics
ORCID 0000-0002-3564-1460
marta.penczar@ug.edu.pl
Teresa Bednarczyk
dr hab. Teresa Bednarczyk, prof. UMCS, Department of Insurance and Investment at the Institute of Economics and Finance, Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University in Lublin
ORCID 0000 0002 9340 6864
bednarte@hektor.umcs.lublin.pl

JEL codes: G17, G18, E17, E20

EKF macroeconomic consensus: forecasts, threats, opportunities and recommendations

Abstract:
The rapid pace of change in economic phenomena combined with the high volatility of financial markets and the growing importance of irrational behavioral factors, encourages a wider use of expert knowledge in macroeconomic forecasting. The aim of the article is to present the results of the fourth edition of the project Macroeconomic challenges and forecasts for Poland. The survey was conducted in the period November 8, 2019 – December 6, 2019. The article presents the prognostic consensus of experts cooperating with the European Financial Congress. In addition to classic macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, it contains threats to sustainable economic development and financial system stability, together with estimates of the subjective probability of implementation. Using the knowledge and competences of experts cooperating with EKF, recommended actions for economic policy were formulated, aimed at weakening the impact of identified threats in the future.

Key words:
macroeconomic forecasts, macroeconomic challenges, financial stability

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